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Loveland

Understanding Your Residential Real Estate “Notice of Value”

If you own property in Larimer County you should have received a postcard this week from the Larimer County Assessor with information concerning your ‘Notice of Value’. This NOV is the Assessors estimate of the value of your property which will be the basis for the 2013 property tax. Note that the Assessor is sending the basic information in post card format to save on printing and postage costs. Full size notices will be available online in ‘PDF’ format at www.larimer.org/assessor. Real property is reappraised every two years and the assessor has previously used an eighteen month period to compare market data ending in June of the previous year. However, for this assessment they have used two years of data: July 1, 2010 to June 30, 2012. In discussing this with Steve Miller, the Larimer County Assessor, he states that “the minimum 18-month period was specified in the early 1980’s because assessor offices then could not process a lot of date. The eighteen month period is not an accurate data collection period because whatever seasonality exists in the real estate markets will be misstated. Having a data collection period that includes two winters, two springs, one summer and one fall is hard to justify on analytical grounds.” In addition, Colorado property tax law allows the assessor to use up to sixty months of data and according to Miller, they did look back over the sixty month period to bring more sales into their analysis but all sales are time trended or market trended to give more weight to sales occurring during the two year period ending June 30, 2102.

According to Miller, residential values in the Fort Collins area are up about 4.5% on average and up 2.1 % in the Loveland / Berthoud area. Estes Park experienced a 5.2% decline and the values in the rest of Larimer County, including the burn areas, were down 11.2% on average. In total Larimer County was up 1.9%.

We have reported sales statistics and average selling prices to you on a regular basis so we checked the Assessors numbers against our MLS numbers. In the Fort Collins area, which includes Laporte, Timnath and Wellington, the average sales price for the two year period ending June 30, 2012 was $247,959 compared to $236,862 for the two year period ending June 30, 2010. This is an increase of 4.7%. We need to remember that these sales figures are only for properties sold through the multi-list system. The Assessor has access to additional data including building permits for new construction, renovation and improvement, for sale by owner transactions, reassessment data from protests and even drive by appraisals plus they used weighted data from a five year period instead of just the two years ending June 30, 2012. Still, it is interesting that the Assessors 4.5% average increase in assessed values is almost identical to the 4.7% increase in the MLS values.

Obviously the rate for any individual property, neighborhood, subdivision or community may vary widely from the averages. Naturally, if you think the value of your assessment is too low, that is probably the end of it. But, if you think the value is too high, you have until June 3, 2013 to file an appeal. To appeal you need to mail a protest or you can send a fax, appear in person or you can go online to www.larimer.org/assessor and complete a protest. As for the research into your appeal, you can deal with comparable sales and market information for the entire five year period ending June 30, 2012. Sales information since July 1, 2012 may not be considered in your appeal, although with the way the market is going, this should not be a handicap. To assist you there is sales information on display at the Assessors office or on line at their web site. You can also call a real estate professional to help you with comparable sales information.

Other than the ‘Notice of Value’ the other two factors that influence your property tax bill are the ‘Assessment Percentage’ and the ‘Mill Levy’. For residential property, the assessment percentage is currently 7.96% of the assessed value and the mill levy for Fort Collins is 90. The property tax calculation on a residential property with an assessed value of $280,000 would then be:

$280,000 x 7.96 / $1,000 x 90 = $2,006.

Remember that the County Assessor is only responsible for assessed values; they are not responsible for taxes and are only charged with spreading the tax burden as fairly as possible. We would like to thank Steve Miller and his staff for the information they have provided and we think you will find his department very helpful with any questions or concerns you may have.

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Local Real Estate Sales – The News is Good!

Normally we would be very happy with a 4.2% increase in sales but after racking up double digit increases in three of the first four months and getting to a 16.2% increase in sales at the end of April, the result for May was a little disappointing. But still an increase is an increase and a 12.6% increase for the year to date is a lot more than where we expected it to be.

Larimer County Home Sales 2012

The average selling price continues to be strong and after posting decreases for the first two months we are now solidly in the $250,000 range with a 4.4% year to date increase. A word of caution about selling prices is that the average price increase has been affected by the above normal volume of purchases of more expensive homes for the first few months of the year. The median price which is sometimes a better indicator of the true market shows a small 0.7% decrease for the year to date: $221,308 for 2012 compared to $222,900 for last year.

The number of homes under contract increased from 552 at the end of April to 599 at the end of May. Homes under contract typically take around forty days to close so this should bode well for closed sales over the next couple of months.

As we mentioned in last weeks column, the main concern with the current market is the low supply of homes for sale. Particularly for homes priced under $300,000, this is causing a bit of a scramble with more buyers than sellers and some properties are receiving multiple offers.

Generally speaking, the national real estate news has been optimistic for the last few months and there are more and more signs that real estate sales, prices and construction are in a positive recovery mode. A lot of this is fueled by all time low mortgage interest rates but we notice a lot of pent up demand also – from both first time buyers who are ready to own a home and more seasoned buyers who are ready to get back into the market plus sellers who are anxious to move up or on after holding back because of the difficult market over the for last few years.

Bottom line – a 12% increase in home sales and a 4% increase in average selling price is a nice start to the year. The news is good!

Pam & Dave Pettigrew, Certified Residential Specialists, are available to answer your questions on real estate. Write to them at Prudential Rocky Mountain REALTORS, 2700 S. College, Fort Collins, 80525, call them directly at 970-282-9305, email FCRealtor@msn.com or visit their award winning web site at www.FortCollinsRelocation.com for an archive of all their columns

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REAL ESTATE COLUMN FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 10, 2012

REAL ESTATE SALES, INVENTORY AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

So much for the fast start to the year! After recording an 11.3% increase in closed home sales for January we took a step back in February with a 5.5% decrease. We also took a hit with the average selling price which was only $231,861 in February, a decrease of 6.9% and moves the year to date figure to a drop of 4.1%. And in spite of entering the prime time selling season – 50% of the years contracts are written in the four month period from February through May – the inventory of homes for sale remains very low. Last year at this time we had a net of 1,061 homes for sale, at the end of January there were just 855 active listings and this has actually dropped at the end of February to 853 active listings. Plus, of these active listings, 120 are new construction and many of those have not even been started. The only good news is that the number of homes under contract took a big jump from 290 at the end of January to 429 at the end of February so this bodes well for closings in the next couple of months.

We expect a demand for around 1,800 homes over the next six months and with just 853 active listings we have a problem. With an average demand for 300 homes per month the inventory is just a 2.8 months supply. This does not extend to all price ranges; there is about a two month supply of homes priced under $300,000, less than a five month supply for homes priced from $300,000 to $500,000 and around a year’s supply of homes priced above $500,000. A balanced market is considered a six month supply so right now we are short one thousand listings and we need them in the price range below $300,000.

* * * *

In the Denver metro area, unsold homes on the market also dropped sharply, down 41.9% from February 2011 to 10,086 homes at the end of February 2012. During the month there were 2,495 closed sales compared to 2,229 last year and the median price dropped 2.7% to $218,855. The annual demand in Denver is in the range of 40,000 homes and with just 10,000 on the market, they have about a three month supply, very similar to our local 2.8 months.

* * * *

In addition to the low supply of homes, the other item that we want to keep harping on is housing affordability. According to the latest National Association of Realtors (NAR) report the housing affordability index in January reached its highest level since NAR began tracking it in 1970. The index – which tracks median home price, median family income and the average mortgage rates – reached 206.1 in January. “This is the first time the housing affordability index has broken the 200 mark, meaning the typical family has roughly double the income needed to purchase a median-priced home,” says Moe Veissi, 2012 NAR president. “For buyers who can qualify for a mortgage, now is a very good time to become a home owner.”

The formula uses the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate and allows for a 20% down payment from the current median home price and 25% of gross income devoted to the mortgage interest and principal payment.

Locally, home prices have sometimes been thought of as relatively expensive compared to some other areas of the country but the current housing affordability index for Larimer County stands at 199 which is very close to the national figure.

To see how this is calculated, the current (2010) median income in Larimer County is $74,900 and the current (2011) median home price is $211,500. With a 20% down payment, the mortgage is $169,200 and with a current 3.75% interest rate, the monthly payment is $783. Twenty five percent of the median income is $1,560 per month divided by $783 equals the 199 index.

For comparison purposes, which really shows the affect of the low interest rate, we took a look at ten years ago when the median income was $58,900, the median home price was $184,222 and the interest rate was 8.5%. This resulted in a housing affordability index of 108 so housing is almost twice as affordable today as it was ten years ago.

Obviously there are a lot of potential buyers that don’t have the 20% down payment but there are also mortgage products available with as little as 3.5% down and some like VA and USDA rural home loans offer up to 100% financing.

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Real Estate Column for Saturday March 3, 2012

LET’S HAVE THE GOOD NEWS!

There have been a lot of negatives in the real estate market over the last few years – both in residential and commercial – but it seems now that things are looking up – both locally and nationally – so we thought it might be time to toot the horn with a record of some of the good news that has been reported recently.

On February 23, 2012 the Federal Housing Finance Agency released their report on home prices for the fourth quarter of 2011 and the Fort Collins – Loveland area jumped to #6 in the national rankings with a 1.49% increase compared to a year earlier. And just to put it into perspective, this is out of 306 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the country with an average drop of 2.43%. In the previous report, the area ranked #58 and while we have not had much of a price increase, other areas are obviously faring worse. Overall, the mountain region is still near the bottom, ranked #8 of nine regions and Colorado has dropped to #32 with a decrease of 2.69% from a year earlier. Just to see how the 1.49% increase stands out, here are the other Colorado areas which all showed a decrease: Boulder -0.75%, Greeley -1.70%, Denver -1.99%, Pueblo -2.61%, Colorado Springs -2.72% and Grand Junction -9.15%

* * * *

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the January Pending Home Sale Index rose 2.0 in January to 97.0 which is 8% higher than a year ago and the highest since April 2010. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says this is a hopeful indicator going into the spring home-buying season. “Given more favorable housing market conditions, the trend in contract activity implies we are on tract for a more meaningful sales gain this year. With a sustained downward trend in unsold inventory, this would bring about a broad price stabilization or even modest national price growth, of course with local variations.”

On another topic NAR reported that sales of existing homes, which account for most of the housing market, rose 4.3% in January which is a pace of about 4.5 million a year. Sales have now risen 13% over the last six months and are at their highest level in nearly two years. More first time home buyers are making purchases and the supply of homes fell to its lowest point in seven years. “The uptrend in home sales is in line with all of the underlying fundamentals – pent up household formation, record low mortgage interest rates, bargain home prices, sustained job creation and rising rents,” stated Lawrence Yun.

* * * *

CBS Money Watch named Fort Collins as among the ten best places to retire in the country. The selection was based on lifestyle perks and noted Fort Collins for its bike paths, hiking, camping, boating and golfing and for its “highly regarded microbreweries”.

* * * *

It is not good news for everyone but the Fort Collins residential vacancy rate was 3.4% for the last quarter of 2011, the lowest level in recent memory. This has obviously pushed the average rent to $974 at the end of the year, up 9% from a year ago. This is good news for investors and is also creating a demand for home ownership as the shortage of rental accommodation and high rents are causing tenants to take a look a buying rather than renting.

* * * *

Mortgage interest rates remain at all time record lows with thirty year fixed rate mortgages available for less than 4%. Last spring the rate was around 5% and as recently as the fall of 2009 the rates were over 6.5%. This means the monthly payment of principal and interest on a $200,000 mortgage is about $150 lower today than this time last year and $350 less than a mortgage taken out in late 2009. With relatively flat selling prices and low mortgage rates we have record housing affordability.

* * * *

There was also some welcome news on the commercial side in the last week with HomeGoods signing a lease to open a 22,500 sq. ft. store in the former Linens ‘N Things building at Harmony and College and Eheart Interior Solutions taking the other 11,500 sq. ft. Kaiser Permanente is leasing 21,000 sq. ft. at 2950 E. Harmony Road in addition to buying the 30,000 sq. ft. former Eheart building at I-25 and Hwy 34 in Loveland and CostPlus World Market is leasing 17,000 sq. ft. in the building vacated by Ultimate Electronics at Front Range Village. There are also many other smaller leases and this activity is cause for optimism on the commercial side which has been especially hard hit over the last few years.

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Pam & Dave Pettigrew of Prudential Rocky Mountain Realtors Are Honored With the Prestigious President’s Circle Award For 2011.

Fort Collins, CO – March 5, 2012

Pam & Dave Pettigrew, award winning real estate professionals with Prudential Rocky Mountain Realtors, have earned the 2011 President’s Circle Award from Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, a Prudential Financial Inc. company. The award recognizes the top residential sales professionals who exemplify great achievement in residential sales for the year. The award will be presented at the Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services’ Sales Convention held in Orlando, March 11 – 13.

In addition to numerous Chairman’s and President’s Circle Awards, they are the only recipients in northern Colorado of the coveted Prudential Legend Award in recognition of their consistent high level of production that places them in the top 1% of the 64,000 Prudential real estate agents in North America.

Pam & Dave are also Prudential Fine Home Marketing Specialists and were awarded this designation after demonstrating professionalism and commitment to representing buyers and seller of Fine Homes which are defined as properties priced in the top 10% of the marketplace. They also hold the Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) Designation awarded by the Residential Sales Council of the Realtors National Marketing Institute, an affiliate of the National Association of Realtors. Less than 2% of all licensed real estate agents have the extensive experience, the unique commitment and the hours of training necessary to hold the coveted CRS designation. In addition Dave is a member of the National Advisory Group for the Council of Residential Specialists.

Pam & Dave would like to thank all of their clients, friends and business associates for their help and support that allows them to experience this level of success. Please call them at (970) 282-9305 or email FCRealtor@msn.com for assistance with all of your real estate needs.

 

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Thinking About Selling Your Home? Now is the Time to Get Started!

Now that the holidays are over, this is the time of year when many home owners start thinking about selling their home and making a move. But if you want to take full advantage of market activity you need to get started today!  While we do not have specific monthly information for showing activity nor for when homes go under contract, we do have monthly figures for closed sales. Using prior years closed sales data and making the assumption that the average closed sale is under contract for four to six weeks and buyers begin looking at least a month or so prior to writing a contract, we have come up with the following ‘Showing Activity’ graph:

Home Showings Activities

 

Note how the activity picks up in February and runs through June before slowing down. Almost 50% of the year’s activity occurs during the four months from March to June and nearly two-thirds of the entire years activity occurs in the six-month period starting in February.

If you are thinking about selling your home, a good place to get started is to select a real estate professional to market your property. This person can provide you with a detailed market analysis and help you determine the right asking price for your home. This is a very important step because the wrong asking price can mean the home does not get sold, takes too long to sell or, on the other end of the scale, can cost you money by not getting the full fair market value for your property.

An experienced real estate agent can also help you in determining what repairs and improvements should be made to the property and give you tips on presenting and showing your home in the best possible condition.

The agent will also give you a marketing plan, which will include all of the ways they will promote the property to reach the broadest range of qualified buyers.

If you don’t have a favorite, qualified agent check with family, friends and business associates for references. Look for signs in your neighborhood, attend open houses, check the internet or call several local real estate agencies and ask for a ‘top producer’ or someone who is experienced in your neighborhood or price range. You should normally ask two or three agents to prepare a market analysis and marketing plan and during the presentation you will have an opportunity to interview them to determine their knowledge and qualifications. Ask for references and call them. You want to make sure that you end up with an agent who you have confidence in and also one with whom you are comfortable since you will be probably be spending several months together in the business of selling your home.

If you are planning to sell your home, this is also the time to begin preparing for your move. If you are going to purchase another home in the same area, the agent listing your home may be the best person to work with on another purchase. With the possibility of two transactions, you may be able to secure a better deal from one agent. If you are moving to another town or state, your listing agent may be able to assist you in locating an agent in the new area to assist you. The Internet can also be a valuable tool to find real estate agents and agencies in the new market plus a wealth of other information on the community, schools, recreation, weather and nearly everything else you want to know.

The next step is to implement the repairs and improvements that may be required prior to showing your home. At the very least this will probably involve a de-cluttering which could mean a garage sale, a few trips to the dump and renting a storage locker. Don’t forget the garage, basement, yard, shed and other storage areas. It may also mean some cosmetic improvements like painting, new carpet, perhaps a new light fixture, window coverings, tile, mirror or other decorating tips. There may also be some repairs to be done like checking the HVAC system, fixing that plumbing leak or electrical outlet, perhaps a roof inspection or fence repair.

These initial two steps of selecting a real estate professional to market your property and getting your property ready for the market can obviously take a few weeks. With increased showing activity starting in February and peaking in just 90 to 120 days NOW is the time to get started.

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The Fort Collins – Loveland Area Shows Well in National Home Price Data

The Fort Collins – Loveland Area Shows Well in National Home Price Data

Two closely followed home price analysis covering activity through the third quarter of 2011 were recently released; the Case Shiller Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

There are differences between the two indexes. The Case Shiller index uses only purchase price information from the 20 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) while the FHFA data includes purchase (purchase only) and refinance (all transaction) data from 287 MSA’s including all fifty states and the District of Columbia.

The Case Shiller index showed an annual price decline of 3.9% and the FHFA all price index showed a 4.3% drop over the four-quarter period ending in September 2011.  According to Case Shiller, the home price index has fallen to 2003 levels. The good news is that as of September 2011 the annual rate of change in 14 or the 20 MSA’s improved from August to September.

In the FHFA report, Colorado ranks highly in purchase only index placing sixth among all states with a small 0.24% price decline. This ranked second only to Wyoming for the best performance in the Mountain Region which ranked last in the country with a one year price drop of 6.8%. The FHFA uses the ‘All-Transaction Index’ for the MSA regions and the Fort Collins – Loveland MSA was in 58th position with a drop of 1.4%.  This compares to the #35 ranking in the last report but gives us the best ranking in the state followed by Boulder -1.7%, Denver -2.8%, Greeley -2.9%, Colorado Springs -5.1%, Pueblo -6.2% and Grand Junction -11.0%.

In comparing this data to the average price and median price information we report from our local multi-list service (IRES), we find that it is pretty close. The Greeley / Weld County area shows a 0.5% drop in average selling price and an exact same 2.9% drop in the median price for the same period. Loveland and south Larimer County show a 2.5% drop in average selling price and a 2.0% decline in median price while Fort Collins and northern Larimer County are at a 1.8% increase in average price and exactly even in median price. Combining the two areas shows the average price up 0.3% and the median price down 0.8% which is pretty close to the FHFA figure of -1.4%.

The good news is that we are no where near the 2003 pricing level when the average selling price in the Fort Collins area was $224,488 compared to $248,435 right now. What caused housing prices to drop in back in a lot of areas of the country was the big run when prices more than doubled in a lot of markets and then crashed back to where they were in the beginning. Our market has been much more orderly showing a 10% increase over eight years with a top annual increase of 6% in 2005 and a drop of 5% in 2009. All the other years were within a 1% to 3% range. Slow and steady wins the race!

Pam & Dave Pettigrew, Certified Residential Specialists, are available to answer your questions on real estate. Write to them at Prudential Rocky Mountain REALTORS, 2700 S. College, Fort Collins, 80525, call them directly at 970-282-9305, email FCRealtor@msn.com or visit their award winning web site at www.FortCollinsRelocation.com for an archive of all their columns

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Homes Sales Continue to Improve

October was another good month for local home sales with an increase of 13.7%. Coupled with an extra twelve sales picked up in the third quarter, we are now just twenty-nine homes behind last year. Considering that 2011 sales were down 14.5% or 235 homes at the end of June, the improvement over the last four months has been very welcome and we are now very close to achieving a year over year increase in sales, something that has not happened since 2004. In the sales table we separated the sales of new homes and resale homes and the drop is all in new construction which continues to decline from 25% of the market in 2004 to just 8.4% today.

Fort Collins

2010

2011

      % Inc.        % Inc.
Area 9    Homes          Avg. Price        Homes         Ave. Price        Homes           Price
October / New

19

$335,295

24

$300,417

26.3

-10.4

October / Resale

163

$233,720

183

$242,503

12.3

3.8

October / Total

182

$244,324

207

$249,217

13.7

2.0

YTD / New

235

$286,319

208

$292,613

-11.5

2.2

YTD / Resale

2,268

$239,485

2,266

$244,438

-0.1

2.1

YTD / Total

2,503

$243,882

2,474

$248,488

-1.2

1.9

               

The average selling price is holding up well and is now at $248,488 for the year to date, an increase of 1.9%. The inventory of homes for sale continues to drop with just 1,351 active listings at the end of October compared to 1,477 at the end of September and 1,592 last year. With 279 of these listings under contract, the net number of homes available for sale is 1,072. With a demand of 237 homes per month based on the last twelve months sales, the current supply is 4.5 months, well below a balanced market. This low number of homes for sale coupled with record low mortgage interest rates is obviously helping selling prices.

 

 The low interest rates and flat selling prices for home buying compared with the record low vacancies and higher rental rates mean home buying is an obvious alternative to renting in today’s market. Five years ago the average selling price was $248,796, almost exactly the same as it is today. The difference is the 30 year fixed rate mortgage which has dropped from 6.5% in 2006 to 4.0% today. With a $200,000 mortgage the monthly payment of principal and interest is $955 compared to $1,264 five years ago. Coupled with the tax advantages of owning versus renting and all the other benefits of home ownership; if you are renting shouldn’t you at least consider the purchase of a home?

 

* * * * *

 A brief snapshot of the Denver metro market shows that there were 3,183 closed home sales in October, up 12% compared to a year earlier but the year to date market is very similar to ours, posting a 0.1% increase. The median selling price for a single family home in October was $226,021, a 1.8% drop from last year. The number of active listings dropped sharply with 27.7% fewer homes on the market at the end of October compared to October last year and there is now a concern that this will hurt activity and closings over the next few months.

 

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THERE IS NO BAD TIME TO SELL A HOME

THERE IS NO BAD TIME TO SELL A HOME

 

While we are all enjoying the current warm sunny fall weather we are reminded that Thanksgiving is just six weeks away, followed by winter and the annual holiday shopping and partying season. Combined with the popularity of winter vacations, the lure of the ski slopes and the prospects of cold and snow, many home sellers think that the next few months are not a good time to be selling a home. In fact, there is no “bad” time to sell your home; the real estate market is active all year round. Naturally there are some peaks and valleys, but homes are bought and sold virtually every day of the year.

 

During the last twelve months, there have been 7,685 homes sold in this market area (Larimer and Weld Counties), or 640 per month. The peak activity is during the spring and early summer and in the six-month period from April through September closed sales average about 770 homes per month compared to the six-month October – March period when sales average 510 homes per month. By percentages, 31.3% of the homes sold in the second quarter; 28.7% in the third quarter and the other 40% of sales are closed in the six month period from October to March so the drop off is not nearly what most people think.

 

New construction also continues year round and sales models are open and active. In fact, the winter months are when most new home construction is placed under contract because the many buyers are looking for a summer completion for their move.

 

Naturally, presenting and marketing a home for sale during the winter months is different than during the summer. Evenings are cold and dark and scheduled showings can sometimes be affected by the weather but there are many things that you can do to make sure your home is presented in the best possible light. Since your landscaping will probably be brown and barren looking, displaying some photos showing your yard at the peak of perfection are helpful to prospective buyers. If you have a landscape design or list of plants and shrubs put this on display in the home book.

 

Keep sidewalks, porches, decks and driveways clean and ice-free. Your car tracks a lot of mess into the garage so try and keep the floor swept and clean. The holiday season offers a good opportunity to add some extra lighting and décor to the exterior and interior of your home and there is nothing wrong, after the holidays are over, with keeping a little extra lighting, like a string of lights in the front yard tree to add some sparkle.

 

Colorful plants and flowers inside can help to warm up the home and a cozy fireplace, candles and soft dinner music provide welcome relief from the outside. With darker days and evenings, add brighter lights, both inside and outside, and leave them on for showings. Don’t forget to provide extra mats at the entry for those dirty shoes and it is certainly ok asking buyers to remove them during showings.

 

The bottom line is that if you are serious about selling your home, there may be no better time than the present to put it on the market. A motivated seller certainly does not want to miss out on 40% of the year’s activity. Buyers at this time of year tend to be more earnest and there are usually fewer homes on the market, resulting in less competition. Make sure your home is easy to show and that it shows well. If it is properly priced and aggressively marketed, there should be a buyer for your home at any time of the year.

 

Pam & Dave Pettigrew, Certified Residential Specialists, are available to answer your questions on real estate. Write to them at Prudential Rocky Mountain REALTORS, 2700 S. College, Fort Collins, 80525, call them directly at 970-282-9305, email FCRealtor@msn.com or visit their award winning web site atwww.FortCollinsRelocation.com for an archive of all their columns.

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LOCAL REAL ESTATE SALES SHOW BIG IMPROVEMENT

LOCAL REAL ESTATE SALES SHOW BIG IMPROVEMENT

September was another good month for local home sales posting a 22.3% increase. After being down 14.4% at the end of the second quarter, sales have now recovered to just a 2.7% decrease compared to last year and with a projected 15% increase over the last three months of the year we should post an increase in year over year annual sales, something that hasn’t happened since 2004.

Selling prices continue to hold firm with a small 2.0% decrease in September, even though the average selling price was a 4.4% increase compared to August. For the year to date the average selling price of $247,282 is a 1.4% increase over last year.

 

Fort Collins

2010

 

2011

    % Inc % Inc
Area 9 Homes Avg. Price Homes Avg. Price   Homes Price
               
1st Quarter

548

$237,582

494

$240,004

 

-9.9%

1.0%

2nd Quarter

1,073

$244,929

910

$248,583

 

-15.2%

1.5%

July

272

$242,599

318

$252,877

 

16.9%

4.2%

August

226

$242,513

306

$242,564

 

35.4%

0.0%

September

198

$258,535

227

$253,348

 

22.3%

-2.0%

3rd Quarter

696

$247,106

851

$250,097

 

22.2%

1.2%

YTD

2,317

$243,847

2,255

$247,282

 

-2.7%

1.4%

The average days on market for the homes that sold in September was 108. This is up from 100 in August but below the year todate of 117. The supply of homes is holding steady with 1,477 active listings at the end of September including 278 homes under contract leaving a net supply of 1,199 homes. This compares to 1,201 at the end of July and 1,260 at the end of August. It is interesting to note that of the active listings 198 are shown as new construction. Of these 35 are under contract and a review of the others indicates that less than half of them are actually completed or nearly complete and ready to close in 30 to 60 days.

The lack of new home construction is the one thing that is really holding back sales. Home construction has been declining for the last six years but has really bottomed out over the last three years. As recently as 2005, newly built homes accounted for 20% of total sales. For 2011 to date there have been 148 detached homes and just 33 attached homes sold and this total of 181 homes represents just 8% of the total sales. The demand for new homes to meet the needs of the market has typically been 20% of total sales and during the last three years less than 10% of the total sales have been new homes. This leaves a shortfall of something like 1,200 homes in just the last three years and eventually this is going to result in a serious deficiency of adequate housing to meet the needs of the market. There certainly seems to be a demand for new homes and there is a large surplus of building lots so the main thing holding back the market seems to be the ability of home builders to arrange bank financing for speculative new home construction. Typically this kind of financing has come from local banks and, unfortunately, it appears a lot of these banks are not ready, willing or able to loan money to builders for new homes unless the home is under a solid purchase contract. Somehow, the banks and builders need to break this impasse and start building!

Pam & Dave Pettigrew, Certified Residential Specialists, are available to answer your questions on real estate. Write to them at Prudential Rocky Mountain REALTORS, 2700 S. College, Fort Collins, 80525, call them directly at 970-282-9305, email FCRealtor@msn.com or visit their award winning web site atwww.FortCollinsRelocation.com for an archive of all their columns.

 

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