When we originally reported 2007 Fort Collins home sales, the total was 3,611. A few additional sales have been reported since then with the final total now at 3,615. The month by month comparison for the last three years is in the table following. The last four months of home sales declined 17.2% from the previous year and took us from a 3.3% increase to a 2.6% decrease for the year. In spite of the low sales, prices held up and the year ended with a slight 1.8% price increase.

We have tracked home sales and average selling price since 1976 and these two graphs show the trends for the past thirty two years.

Note that the three year period from 2005 to 2007 is just the second time that there has been a three year decline in home sales. The other period was from 1993 to 1995 and the next year showed a 10% increase in sales. We are not forecasting anything near a 10% recovery for 2008 but expect sales to start improving in the second quarter of the year on the way to a 2 – 3% sales increase for the year. Nevertheless, the ‘boom’ of a double digit increase in sales has to be somewhere just down the road.

The average selling price begins at $37,804 in 1976 and there has been an unbroken string of price increases right through to the $253,545 in 2007. Since the last double digit increases experienced in 1999 and 2000 the average selling price has increased just 29% in the last seven years. We experienced a similar seven year period from 1986 to 1992 when the average price increased 27%. This was followed by 33% two year price increase. A four year ‘flat’ period from 1995 to 1998 was followed by a 22% jump in the next two years. So the only question to be answered is when the slump will end and the jump begins. We don’t expect it this year and are forecasting a further 2 – 3% increase in the average selling price for 2008 but there should be no doubt that as the recovery takes hold we can look for a double digit price increase sometime in the foreseeable future.

So don’t believe all the doomsayers. Our local real estate market is healthy and due to get better!