Real Estate Column for Sunday, April 19, 2009
Friday, April 17th, 2009
Push the button…play the recording! Local real estate sales continue to spiral down with just 189 homes closed in March, a 27.9% decrease from last year. And after three months of relatively modest price declines, the March average selling price of $235,326 was 9.1% less than a year ago. With the first quarter in the books, sales totaled just 459 homes, a 23.5% decline and the average price of $243,408 was down 5.4%.

All of the news is not gloomy however as March sales were a substantial 48.8% increase over February and the best month we have had since last October. The median selling price in March was $214,000 compared to $210,500 last year and is now at $209,000 for the year to date compared to $210,000 for the same period last year, a decline of just 0.5%. The DOM (days on market) of the March sold listings also improved from 135 in February to 125 in March. For buyers, there is a better selection of homes on the market as the active listings increased to 1,938 compared to 1,663 at the end of February and prices continue to be very flat. The average selling price for 2005 was $245,243 compared to the current $243,408 so there is good value in today’s prices. And, as reported earlier, PMI’s U. S. Market Risk Index – which measures the likelihood of home price declines in two years for each of the nation’s 381 metropolitan statistical areas – calculates that the Fort Collins – Loveland MSA area has a very minimal risk index of 2.4 meaning that there is almost a 98% chance that a home purchased this year will increase in value. This Risk Index uses economic, housing and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates and foreclosure activity) to determine these probabilities. To put the 2.4% calculation in perspective, several areas of the county have a risk index of almost 100% (Miami Beach 99.9, Riverside 99.9 and Las Vegas 99.8).
We have also noticed an increase in traffic and homes being placed under contract. As an example, one particular development had five contracts written in March compared to zero the previous three months. This is a new construction project so the contracts will show up as closed sales over the next few months. In addition, the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, down payment assistance and very low mortgage interest rates are gaining attention.
Sales in the next five months – April to August – have traditionally been the peak months of the year, accounting for around 60% of the annual home sales so here’s hoping that the increase in activity in the last few weeks will equate to increased sales activity.
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The local MLS information is provided by IRES (Information and Real Estate Services) and they have recently decided to offer sold information to the public. This information has not been posted to the public MLS site at www.ColoProperty.com but it is available at several other sites including www.FortCollinsRelocation.com. It only shows homes sold information going back twelve months but offers much more detail than what is available through the Larimer County Tax Assessor at http://www.larimer.org/assessor/sales.cfm and can be searched by all the same categories as a search for active listings.
