The business of real estate has certainly received a lot of press over the last week, all of it full of doom and gloom and the ‘sky is falling’. We are here to tell you that all is not lost and we will survive but first a review. It actually began with our August 14, 2010 report that local home sales in July had dropped 30.5% from a year earlier and were down 34% from the previous month. This was followed with the August 24, 2010 report from the National Association of Realtors that sales of existing homes were down 27.2% in July compared to June and down 25.6% compared to last year. The adjusted annual rate is now at 3.37 million homes which is the lowest since May 1995 when the sales pace was 3.34 million.

This report prompted a lot of comment, most of it pretty negative, and then it got worse. The following day, the Commerce Department reported that sales of newly constructed homes fell 12.4% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 276,000. This is the slowest pace on records dating back to 1963 and the past three months have been the worst on record for new home sales. To put it in perspective, for twenty five years from 1983 to 2007 there were more than 600,000 new homes sold annually. By 2009 sales had dropped to 375,000 and now we are looking at 276,000, less than half of the market of just three years ago. With new homes not selling builders have stopped building and there were just 210,000 new homes for sale at the end of July, the lowest level in 40 years.

This drop in new home construction is a real drag on the economy. According to the National Association of Home Builders, the construction of each new home creates the equivalent of three jobs for a year and $90,000 in taxes. This means the one year economic loss of 250,000 homes is 750,000 jobs and $225 million in tax revenue plus the loss of perhaps $40 billion in construction spending and the entire ancillary spending new home owners make on furnishings, fixtures, landscaping and a host of other products and services.

Obviously high unemployment, slow job growth and tight credit have kept people from buying homes, even with attractive selling prices, the lowest mortgage rates in decades and historically high housing affordability conditions.

On the good news side, at least for home owners, selling prices are holding steady. Locally, the average selling price for July was up 1.9% from a year ago and the local median price of $214,000 is up 1.9% for the year to date. The national median existing home price for July was up 0.7% from a year ago and the median sales price of a new home was down 4.8% from a year earlier.

Also on August 25, 2010 the Federal Housing Finance Agency released their report on their House Price Index for the second quarter and said that over the past year, seasonally adjusted prices fell 1.6% compared to the second quarter of last year. The good news is that Colorado was ranked #14 on the list with a one year drop of 0.25% and was the best performing state in the Mountain Region. The Fort Collins – Loveland area was ranked at #94 with a price drop of 2.69% and this compares to five years ago when Colorado was ranked #47 and Fort Collins – Loveland near the bottom at #247 out of 253 MSA areas.

To put all this in perspective, annual home sales, because of the healthy activity in the first half of the year are still expected to reach 5 million in 2010. This compares to annual sales that have averaged 4.9 million in the last 20 years and 4.4 million over the past 30 years. Locally, we are in much the same situation. In spite of poor sales in July, sales are still up over 10% for the year and even with the prospect of lower sales in the next few months we should still equal last years sales and average selling price. Our inventory of homes for sale is in good shape and in line with the demand and sellers have for the most part priced their homes properly and presented them in good condition. For any potential home buyer, this would seem to be the perfect time to buy a home and a much better use of your money than wasting it on rent. We invite you to call a real estate professional to at least open a dialogue on the current opportunities.

Last month we wrote and expressed hope that the significant decline in showing activity would not mean a significant decline in home sales. Well it did!

It normally takes at least one or two months from the time a buyer gets serious about looking for a home until there is a closed sale so showing activity in May / June should be an indicator of closings in July and it was. Showing activity was down 33.7% from the previous year in May and June and closed sales in July were down 30.5%. Wow! We knew that the tax credits which expired with June closings were having a positive impact on sales but we did not realize sales would dry up to this level as soon as it expired. During the ten month run of the tax credits local real estate sales posted a 25.3% increase over the corresponding ten months of the previous year and now to hit the worst July on record (at least in the last twenty years) is pretty discouraging.

It is evident that most everyone who was thinking about buying, particularly the first time home buyer, managed to get it done by the end of June to take advantage of the tax credit and there aren’t many buyers left. And this is in spite of fixed 30-year mortgage rates that are approaching 4% which is about 3% money after the interest deductibility is calculated. The difference between a $200,000 mortgage payment at 4% compared to 6% is $250 per month and compared to 8% is over $500 month. Coupled with the fact that home prices have shown absolutely no appreciation in the last five years, this suggests that homes today are more affordable than they have ever been.

Anyway, there is some good news. We originally reported June sales of 398 homes which was a 14.7% increase over the previous year. There were a number of late sales to increase the total to 415 and an increase of 19.6%. The inventory of continues to decline and based on an average demand of 260 homes per month over the last year, there is a supply of 7.2 months which is pretty close to a balanced market between supply and demand. At least the lower inventory is taking some pressure off selling prices which remain pretty close to last year. The showings in July, while down 16% from last year were actually up 6% from last month. And then there is the sales activity in other areas of the region and we stack up pretty well. The Loveland / Berthoud (south Larimer County) area was down 40% in July and is up 9.6% for the year to date and Greeley / Windsor and Weld County was down 24% in July and has just a 1.2% increase for the year to date. This compares to the Fort Collins (north Larimer County) area, down 30% in July and up 10.4% for the year to date.

As to where we go from here, that is anybody’s guess. We had a good six month run to start the year and sales were up 23.6%. We don’t think anyone thought that was sustainable but if we start double digit decreases for the rest of the year – and heaven forbid this does not mean any more 30% – we will struggle to meet last years sales total, which was the lowest since 1995.

Three things are needed to get this market back on track: attractive home pricing and supply, low mortgage rates and improved consumer confidence. We have two of them in place and now if we could just get the economy back in business we should be ok but, as we are reminded, that is kind of a chicken and egg scenario. Which comes first; an improving economy or improving consumer confidence?

June was another good month for local real estate sales and the 398 closed residential sales were a 14.7% improvement over last year and represented the best month sales in two years since June 2008. The year to date increase is now at 22%. The average selling price of $248,845 was also a big improvement, 7.5% over last year and the highest price since February 2009. This brought the year to date average selling price to within 0.8% of last year and the median price of $213,000 is actually up 0.7% for the year to date.

June was the end date for the tax credit incentives so there was a boost in sales as there was a scramble to get homes that were under contract at the end of April closed by June 30th. Note that the tax credit has now been extended to September 30, 2010 but only for contracts dated prior to the end of April so there will not be much effect on sales over the next three months.

One of the reasons for the improvement in June is that there were finally some more expensive homes sold. In this area, homes priced above $400,000 are generally considered ‘fine home’ properties and account for about 10% of the total market. In June there were 38 homes sold that were priced above $400,000 compared to 18 last year. The volume accounted for 21.6% of total sales for the month compared to just 12% last year. Sales in this category for the year to date are now at 135 homes compared to 111 last year.

New home sales continue to struggle with just 145 sold so far this year, representing 9% of the total market. In the five year period from 2001 to 2005 new home sales averaged 22.5% of total sales but in the 4.5 years since new home sales have been about half of that accounting for just 12% of the total market and are on a pace this year for less than 10%. At some point in time we are going to have to start building more new homes to replace existing homes and to accommodate an expanding market.

The days on the market for home sales closed in June averaged 109 compared to 108 last year but there is a big improvement in the year to date with 110 days this year compared to 118 last year. The inventory of homes for sale dropped slightly to 1,968 and based on the last twelve months of sales, this represents a 7.4 month supply which is close to a balanced market.

The big question mark is showing activity which was down 32.6% in June on top of a 34.8% drop in May. Typically it takes a couple of months from the start of showings to a closed sale so the effect of this will probably show up in July and August closings. Either that or buyers are finding what they are looking for by looking at a lot less properties so time will tell.

The first six months typically represent 50% of the year’s activity so we are on a pace for 3,200 closed sales compared to 2,917 last year which would be a good recovery. However, the 2,917 sales in 2009 were the lowest since 1995 and 3,200 pales in comparison to the average sales of 3,850 in the ten year period from 1998 to 2007.

All in all, a good six months with 1,053 closed sales representing a 14.6% increase over the second quarter last year and the best quarter since the 1,069 in the second quarter of 2008. In addition, June was the first meaningful increase in the average selling price since May last year. We’ll keep our fingers crossed that the significant decline in showing activity does not mean a significant decline in home sales.

As might be expected, a lot has changed in new home construction in the last thirty years. Homes today are larger with more bathrooms and bedrooms; they contain more volume and amenities and are more energy efficient with better materials, better insulation and better construction standards. They also cost more but at the same time, homes today are more affordable. This information is contained in a report released by the U. S. Census Bureau and a review of the ‘Characteristics of New Single Family Homes Completed’.

In 1979 the median purchase price of a newly constructed single family home was $62,900 and the median income in the U. S. was $16,461. The cost of a new home was then the equivalent of 3.82 years income. Thirty years later, in 2009 the median cost of a new home was $216,700 and the median income was $48,500, so this home cost 4.47 years of income.

However, new homes built today are much larger. In 1979 the average home was 1,650 sq. ft. while today, the average is 2,202 sq. ft. so while the median price has increased 245%, the cost per square foot has increased from $38.12 sq. ft. to $98.41, a much smaller 158% increase. This compares to a 195% increase in median income so on a per square foot basis, homes today cost less as a percentage of income than they did in 1979.

As for amenities, 86% now have central air conditioning installed compared to 66%. 97% have two or more bathrooms compared to 79% and 24% of homes today have three or more baths compared to just 8% in 1979. Homes with four or more bedroom homes have increased from 25% to 38%, in 1979 36% of homes had no garage or a one car garage, today 90% have two or more car garages. Another trend in home design is ceiling height. An estimated 80% of homes in 1979 were built with 8’ or lower ceilings. Today more than half – 58% of homes with are built with 9’ or higher ceilings.

One thing that has gotten smaller is the lot size. In 1979 just 33% of all homes built were two stories and the median lot size was 9,580 sq. ft. This compares to 2009 when just 57% of homes were two or more stories and the lot size shrunk to 8,780 sq. ft.

When mortgage interest rates are factored in, these bigger and better homes are substantially less expensive than those of thirty years ago. Mortgage interest rates had started to increase dramatically in the late 1970s reaching a peak of 16.9% in 1981. The interest on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in 1979 was 12.9%. With a 20% down payment, that $62,900 home carried a mortgage of $50,320 and a monthly payment of $552.71 or 40% of gross median income. In 2009, the interest rate was 4.93% and the $216,700 home had a mortgage of $173,360 with a monthly payment of $924.83 or 22.9% of income. Granted the 12.9% is historically high and the 4.9% is historically low but no matter how the homes are compared newly constructed homes today are bigger, better built, more energy efficient and have more amenities and represent excellent value.

No doubt fueled by the expiring tax credit, the closed home sales for May in the Fort Collins area jumped way up to 341, a 27.7% increase over last year. There were also a number of late reported sales for March and April which brought those two months to 547 closed sales compared to the 515 previously reported. This brings the year to date home sales to 1,190, a substantial 23.3% increase over last year. The average selling price for May was $242,153 which is down 6.3% from a year ago and for the year to date the average price is $240,287, down 3.5%. This drop can be attributed to the mix of homes sold as the median price for May was down just 2.2% to $215,000 and the year to date figure is off 1.4% at $211,000.

The home sales that were closed in May were on the market 97 days which is a big improvement over the 118 days last year and the year to date performance has improved from 122 days to 111 days. The inventory of homes for sale actually dropped from 2,120 at the end of April to 2,061 at the end of May. The biggest shock in the May results is in the showing activity which declined 30% from last month and a very worrisome 34.8% from last year. We know a lot of the activity prior to the end of April was buyers rushing to get homes under contract to qualify for the tax credit but this looks like it has come to a screeching halt which could have a serious negative impact on sales over the next few months.

This comes at a time when we have a good inventory of homes for sale– equivalent to a 7.9 month supply and mortgage rates which are almost unbelievably low and in the prime time of the year for buyer activity. Hopefully it is just a dip in the road rather than a fall off the cliff and we will certainly keep our fingers crossed that the momentum that has been built up over the last eight months will continue through the summer selling season (June through August) which accounts for 35% of annual sales.

The National Association of Realtors is a month behind in reporting home sales but the good news is that existing home sales in April were up 22.8% from a year earlier and new home sales were up 47.8%. These gains were widely anticipated but still beat all forecasts. “The upswing in April existing home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, and improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low”. NAR also reported that the Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in April, was 22.4% higher that in April 2009.

The median national price of homes sold in April was $173,100, up 4% from a year ago and total housing inventory rose 11.5% to 4.04 million existing homes for sale which represents a 8.4 month supply. Unfortunately, a true recovery in the housing market won’t happen until we see solid gains in employment and income and that appears to be a very slow process. And then there is still the shadow inventory consisting of a back log of homes in the foreclosure process that have not hit the market. LPS Applied Analytics has estimated that banks currently have about 1.1 million foreclosed homes on their inventory and that another 4.8 million mortgages are likely to end in foreclosure. Add to this the results of a recent Zillow survey which found that 7% of all homeowners were “very likely” to try to sell their homes in the next twelve months if the housing market seemed to be improving. If 7% of all homeowners hit the market, that would equal about 5.3 million homes, more than the number of existing homes sold all of last year. The additional inventory is not a “healthy” development, said Lawrence Yen.

All of this will keep the buyer in the driver’s seat and cause further pressure on home prices. The challenge is to find more buyers who are certainly in a great position to take advantage of all these market forces.

Tax Credit Helps Home Sales

With a big assist from the ‘tax credits’, particularly the $8,000 first time home buyer credit, local home sales in April were 22% higher than in March and 23.6% higher than April last year. Homes priced under $250,000 are typically in the price range for the majority of first time home buyers and over 70% of the April closings were in this price range. For the year to date there is a 24.6% increase in the closed sales for homes priced under $250,000. Homes priced above $250,000 are not seeing anywhere near this type of activity with a sales increase is just 6.2% compared to last year.

Selling prices have held up well with the average at $238,706 representing a 2.9% decrease for the year to date. The median price, which reflects the mix of homes sold, is down just 0.5% to $209,000.

 This is a breakdown of the sales and pricing by type of home:

Sales of resale homes, both detached and attached are up 25.3% while sales of   newly constructed homes are down 43.1%. Five years ago, new home construction accounted for around 20% of the total market but by last year had dropped to 10% and is at 7.5% for the first four months of this year.

As evidence of the positive affect that the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit had on our market we just have to look at sales in the first nine months of last year which were down 14% and compare this to the home sales in the last seven months which are up 22%. The tax credit has now ended although we can expect to see some benefit from closed sales between now and the end of June as the rules called for homes to be under contract by the end of April and the sale to close by the end of June. But we are now in uncharted territory – do we go back to the doldrums of early 2009 with a double digit drop in sales or will activity continue to be robust through the traditional high volume months of May through August? The answer probably lies somewhere in between. For the next few months we are facing a very low level of sales from 2009 which were down 12% from the previous year and 30% from our peak volume years so a sales increase in the range of 10% would not be unreasonable to expect. Compared to last year there are more active listings on the market, the average price is lower and interest rates continue to hover around 5% making the market very attractive for buyers.

There have been a total of 3,004 closed sales in the Fort Collins area in the last twelve months to March 31, 2010 or an average ‘demand’ of 250 per month. There are 2,108 current active listings and based on the closed sales / demand this represents an 8.4 month supply of homes on the market. A balanced market between supply and demand is normally considered to be about a six month supply so we are experiencing a ‘buyers market’ with too many sellers and not enough buyers.

The following table shows the supply and demand for residential real estate in the Fort Collins area by price range for the last twelve months from April 1, 2009 to March 31, 2010.

Note that almost 45% of the activity is in the price range up to $200,000 and over 80% of the closed sales have been at selling prices under $300,000. There is a seven month supply of homes in this price range which is close to a balanced market between supply and demand.

There is about a one year supply of homes from $300,000 to $500,000 which is about double the required inventory and puts the advantage clearly in the buyer’s camp. From $500,000 to $1,000,000 there is a two to three year supply and above $1,000,000, based on the recent demand, a six month supply is four or five homes and there are fifty active listings.

The average days on market for sold homes also reflects the supply / demand. Sold homes priced under $300,000 have averaged 104 days on the market but this moves up quickly to an average of 204 days for homes priced from $500,000 to $600,000. And this is just for the homes that are sold; it does not count current home listings nor those that are expired, withdrawn or even those that are relisted.

Now is a good time to be a homebuyer with good inventory, mortgage rates that remain historically low and in a region that has experience very modest price movement over the last five years. For more expensive homes, jumbo mortgages are more readily available and rates have improved. Plus you can expect most sellers to be motivated and to have their homes competitively priced, in prime showing condition and easily accessible.

For home sellers, this can be a difficult market. In spite of the best marketing efforts, proper pricing, good maintenance and time and effort spent on keeping the property in decent showing condition, many homes are languishing on the market with very few showings and no offers. This is due to the fact that there are simply not enough buyers to go around.

It is also hurting the move up buyer, which has always been a big segment of the real estate market. If sellers can’t sell their present home, most can’t afford to or absolutely don’t want to buy another home and many are turning to improving and remodeling their present home and using tax deductible home equity.

If you are serious about selling, the old adage that there is a buyer for every home probably still applies – it is just taking a lot longer and requires patience.

The weather is heating up…and so are home sales! March closed sales in the Fort Collins area were up 18.4% from a year ago and this increase was achieved with little pressure on selling prices which were down less than 1% on average. For the first quarter, sales are ahead of last year by 13.5% and this is the first time in five years we have started with a year over year increase in first quarter sales.

Since the tax credit momentum started building six months ago, there have been five months of double digit increases and total home sales in the last two quarters are up 21.5%. The increased closings are matched by the drop in the average days on the market down from 124 to 113 and showing activity which is up 12.1% for March following a 12.5% jump in February. Allowing for a one to two month lag from showings to closings this increased activity should translate to improved sales over the next couple of months.

The inventory of homes for sale has moved up to 2,024 homes and based on sales over the last twelve months, this is about an eight month supply which is more than the normal balanced market of a six month supply. The inventory is up almost 50% from the low point at the end of December so we have to be careful of too much supply putting pressure on the selling price.

The supply varies widely by price range, with a fairly balanced market for homes priced below $350,000, a two year supply of homes priced from $350,000 to $500,000 and up to a three or four year supply for homes priced above $500,000. As an example, in the last three months there have been 17 closed sales for homes priced above $500,000 and there are 245 active listings. With a demand – based on just the last three months – of 5.67 homes per month, this is a 43 month supply. It gets worse above $1,000,000 with zero sales in the last three months and an inventory of fifty homes for sale. This is not a good time to be trying to sell an ‘expensive’ home.

The first quarter performance in the Fort Collins area is similar to the Loveland / Berthoud / south Larimer County area which reports 300 sales for the quarter, an 11.5% increase from last year and an average selling price of $241,373, down 2.3%. In the Weld County area, sales for the first quarter are down 9.5% to 636 but they are finally showing a bit of a price improvement with the average price in the first quarter up 7.5% to $185,667.

There are still three weeks left to take advantage of the tax credits which apply to home purchases which are placed under contract before May1, 2010 and close by June 30, 2010. With 2009 sales in the second quarter that totaled a measly 843 homes and with historically low mortgage interest rates, a high level of showing activity, good inventory and low prices we expect to maintain double digit increases in home sales over the next three months. And then we hit the third quarter which is traditionally the busiest three months of the year for closed home sales. Maybe….just maybe…this market has turned around!

The national existing home sales for February were just reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and they show an increase of 7% over the seasonally adjusted figure from February 2009. The median price in February was down almost 2% from a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist says “Although home sales have been higher than year-ago levels for eight straight months and home prices are much more stable compared to the past few years, the housing recovery is still fragile at the moment”. Part of the reason for this comment is that national adjusted sales were actually down 0.6% in February compared to the previous month and this is the third straight month of a small decrease, pushing adjusted sales down to the lowest level since last July.

Partly because of this, total housing inventory at the end of February rose 9.5% to 3.59 million homes which represent an 8.6 month supply at the current sales pace, well above a normal balance of around a six month supply.

Locally, our residential real estate market continues to outperform the national model with February sales up 33.6% compared to 7%, prices down 0.1% compared to a national price decrease of 2.0% and our local inventory of homes for sale equivalent to 7.2 month supply compared to 8.6 months nationally.

The big concern now is whether the tax credit is going to boost spring home sales much like it did last fall when the original tax credit was due to expire. The $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers and the $6,500 tax credit for repeat buyers are only available to qualified buyers who sign sales contracts by the end of April and complete the purchase by the end of June. “The key test for a durable recovery comes in the next few months as the tax credit deadline approaches,” Yun said. “If we see a surge in home buying comparable to last fall, then enough inventory should be absorbed to ensure broad home price stabilization.” NAR President Vicki Cox Golder says some buyers are just beginning to realize the urgency of acting before the contract deadline for the tax credit. “If home buyers want this tax credit there is literally no time to waste,” she says.

One big assist to the housing market is mortgage rates which are close to all time lows. Conventional 30-year fixed rates are at 4.75% according to rate research website FreeRateUpdate.com. The 15-year rate is at 4.125% and a 5/1 ARM rate is 3.625%. FHA rates which provide a higher loan to value and are a big assist to first time home buyers are priced about the same. And to talk about buying power, it was not that long ago that 30-year fixed rates were around 6%. There are two ways to look at the difference between 6% and 4.75%: one is you can qualify for a mortgage with lower income or two, you can qualify for a larger mortgage / more expensive home. For example, at 6% you will need an annual income of about $43,000 to qualify for a $200,000 mortgage. At 4.75% you need an income of $37,000. Or, if you have the $43,000 of income, you can qualify for a $230,000 mortgage with the same monthly payment.

On another front, jumbo loans which were almost impossible to come by a year ago and have been a concern for buyers of more expensive homes, are now more widely available in the range of 5.5% for up to 80% of loan to value. This has to help both buyers and sellers of homes requiring mortgages above the $417,000 conventional limit.

With a good inventory to choose from, prices that have been flat for several years, record low mortgage rates and available tax credits, any potential home buyer would be well advised to place a home under contract by April 30, 2010 – that is thirty four days from now so the clock is ticking!

To begin, we have been asked for an explanation of the data we use in these monthly reports and where we get it from. The information is taken from records supplied by Information and Real Estate Services (IRES) which is the local Real Estate Broker owned multiple listing service. The figures are for sales reported by the real estate member brokerage firms and cover ‘Area 9’ which is northern Larimer County from about HWY 392 / CR 32 to the Wyoming border. Fort Collins accounts for almost 90% of the total, with Wellington around 6.5% and Red Feather Lakes, Livermore, Laporte, Timnath and surrounding areas accounting for the balance. The totals include single family and multi-family homes, attached and detached and both new construction and resale. They do not include income properties, commercial or industrial properties, vacant land and lots nor farm and ranch properties.

Here are the results for the month of January compared to a year ago:

Last year local real estate sales started off with a 12.7% drop in January and this certainly was a precursor for a year where home sales were at the lowest point since 1995. Our hope for this year was, given the relatively low sales in the previous year, that we would continue to build on the last quarter of 2009, and show some sales gains for the first six months. This did not happen in January when sales were down 16.4% from last year and down 35% from the previous month….a disappointing way to begin the year.

On top of that the average selling price was off 10.9% and at $224,382, is the lowest monthly average selling price since July 2004….that is five and a half years ago!

The good news is that the median price for the month was up 2.6% to $205,000. Plus the average selling price was down substantially compared to January last year but was down a more modest 6.2% compared to the average for all of last year. The inventory of homes for sale remains low and the new figure we are following is perhaps the best news with January showings at 5,623 properties compared to 4,895 last year and just 2,958 in December. This 90% increase from last month means there are buyers out there looking at homes and should bode well for contracts and closed sales in the next couple of months.

A lot of this activity is being driven by the Tax Credit incentives which apply to qualified buyers placing a home under contract by April 30, 2010 and closing the purchase by June 30, 2010.

If you are considering the sale of your home this year, we would recommend that you get started now to take advantage of this increased traffic. If you are a potential home buyer, you may qualify for $6,500 or $8,000 of federal tax credit but only if you act now. Plus a lot of economists are predicting higher mortgage interest rates as the year progresses so the sooner you lock in a fixed mortgage rate the better. It takes time to get qualified and to find the home you want and then you have to allow time to get the contract finalized and up to forty-five days to close the purchase so time is running out. We know it sounds like a broken record but that is better than the ‘we told you so’ line so get moving!